California remains the center of U.S. almond production, but the 2026 crop is expected to be slightly smaller than the previous season. USDA’s May 2026 forecast puts California almond production at 2.70 billion pounds on a shelled basis, down 1% from the 2.715 billion pounds estimated for 2025.

Forecast bearing acreage is 1.39 million acres, while yield is expected to remain at 1,940 pounds per acre.

The outlook has become more cautious as the crop moves into harvest. Land IQ reported a decline in bearing acreage, while field observations from Blue Diamond Growers pointed to variable orchard conditions, advanced crop maturity and some downward pressure on crop potential.

California almond production forecast for 2026

The USDA forecast is the main official benchmark for the 2026 California almond crop. It is based on a survey of about 500 almond growers conducted in April and May.

Source: USDA NASS May 2026 Crop Production report.

The small production decline is mainly linked to lower bearing acreage rather than a lower forecast yield. USDA expects yield to remain unchanged at 1,940 pounds per acre.

For almond processors, exporters and buyers, that distinction matters. A stable yield means orchard productivity is not expected to fall at the USDA forecast level, but fewer productive acres can still limit total crop volume.

Also read: U.S. Tree Nut Exports: Products, Markets and Trends

Almond acreage is falling for the first time in decades

California’s almond acreage story is changing. Land IQ’s initial 2026 estimate put bearing acreage at 1,385,870 acres, down 15,227 acres from its 2025 final estimate of 1,401,097 acres.

According to the Almond Board of California, this was the first year-over-year decline in bearing almond acreage since 1995. Land IQ also estimated 47,588 acres of orchard removals during the period covered by its 2026 initial estimate.

The decline does not mean California is losing its position as a major almond-producing region. It does show that the industry is moving through a period of orchard removals and slower new planting.

Land IQ’s initial acreage figure is also different from USDA’s 1.39 million-acre forecast because the two figures come from different estimation systems. USDA’s forecast is designed for crop production estimates, while Land IQ maps orchards and measures standing acreage.

What is happening to the 2026 almond crop?

By early August, the crop was already moving into harvest in some areas.

Blue Diamond’s August 3 crop progress report said the 2026 crop had developed ahead of normal. Harvest operations began in mid-July, with the first shakers entering an orchard in western Colusa County on July 10. The first harvested crop was delivered to huller-shellers during the week of July 19.

The report also described a significant heat wave during late July, with temperatures reaching 102 to 105°F in parts of the Central Valley. Growers were managing irrigation, pest pressure and harvest timing as the crop advanced quickly.

That early maturity can affect how quickly the crop moves through harvesting and processing facilities. Blue Diamond also reported thick hulls in some orchards, which could reduce huller-sheller flow rates.

Private crop estimates point to a slightly lower crop

The USDA’s May forecast is not the only industry estimate.

Blue Diamond Growers revised its 2026 crop estimate in July to 2.67 billion pounds, with a range of 2.65 billion to 2.70 billion pounds. The cooperative said orchard conditions varied widely across California, with differences in nutrition, crop load and management affecting crop potential.

This estimate is slightly below the USDA’s 2.70 billion-pound forecast. The difference is not large, but it shows why the final crop size remains uncertain while harvest progresses.

The key point for buyers is that current estimates should be treated as forecasts, not final production results.

Also read: Top Tree Nut Producing States in the USA

Weather and water remain important production factors

California almonds depend heavily on irrigation and water management remains an important production issue.

UC Agriculture and Natural Resources notes that almonds are one of California’s largest irrigated crops, with more than 1.2 million acres. Precision irrigation and regulated deficit irrigation are among the approaches being studied and used to improve water productivity.

Weather also affects flowering, pollination and summer crop development. Almond trees depend on bee pollination during bloom, while excessive summer heat can increase water demand and add stress in warmer production areas. USDA’s California Climate Hub identifies summer heat, winter chill requirements, bee pollination and pest pressure among the climate-related concerns for almond production.

For 2026, however, the available industry reports point to a more immediate issue. Crop maturity has advanced quickly, making irrigation, pest control and harvest timing important as growers move through the season.

What the 2026 crop outlook means for the almond industry

The current outlook suggests a California crop that is close to the previous year’s level but with less room for unexpected production losses.

Three factors are especially important.

First, bearing acreage is lower. Land IQ’s initial estimate shows that productive acreage has declined, with orchard removals and slower new planting contributing to the reduction.

Second, USDA expects stable yield. At 1,940 pounds per acre, the forecast yield is unchanged from 2025. This helps offset some of the impact from lower acreage.

Third, field conditions are uneven. Blue Diamond’s reports describe differences between orchards based on crop load, nutrition, input management and crop maturity. That makes the final production outcome harder to judge from a single statewide forecast.

For processors and exporters, the practical issue is supply timing as much as total volume. An advanced harvest can bring more almonds into huller-sheller facilities over a shorter period, while differences between growing regions can affect the pace of deliveries.

California almond production 2026 key data

• 2026 USDA production forecast: 2.70 billion pounds
• 2026 USDA bearing acreage: 1.39 million acres
• 2026 USDA forecast yield: 1,940 pounds per acre
• 2025 USDA production: 2.715 billion pounds
• Land IQ 2026 initial bearing acreage: 1,385,870 acres
• Blue Diamond July 2026 estimate: 2.67 billion pounds
• Blue Diamond estimate range: 2.65 to 2.70 billion pounds

California almond production outlook for the rest of 2026

The 2026 California almond crop is currently expected to be around 2.7 billion pounds, with USDA forecasting a 1% decline from the previous season. Acreage is slightly lower, but forecast yield remains stable.

The next major question is how actual harvest receipts compare with these estimates. As more almonds reach huller-shellers and processors, the industry will have a clearer view of final crop volume and quality.

For almond buyers, processors, exporters and other businesses linked to the California supply chain, the best approach is to track crop receipts, harvest progress and industry position reports alongside USDA estimates. The USDA forecast provides the official baseline, while grower and processor observations can provide useful signals about how the crop is developing in the field.

FAQs

Image credit: Nut Insights
Sources:

• 2026 Crop Production, May 2026 — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• Bearing Almond Acreage Drops – First Time in Decades — Almond Board of California
• Crop Progress Report – August 3, 2026 — Blue Diamond Growers
• Blue Diamond Almond Crop Estimate Revised to 2.67 Billion Pounds — Blue Diamond Growers
• Precision irrigation management for optimizing limited water in young and mature almond orchards — University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources
• Climate Vulnerabilities of California Specialty Crops — USDA Climate Hubs

The United States is a major global supplier of tree nuts, with almonds, pistachios, walnuts and pecans forming a large part of its export trade. California is especially important, producing most U.S. almonds, pistachios and walnuts, while pecans are grown across several Southern and Western states.

For U.S. growers, processors, exporters, food manufacturers and buyers, exports are closely linked to crop size, product form, overseas demand, tariffs, freight and food regulations.

Recent USDA data also show how strongly international trade affects U.S. tree nut supply and pricing. See the key products, processing forms, markets and trade trends shaping the industry.

Which tree nuts does the U.S. export?

The main U.S. tree nut export products include:

• Almonds
• Pistachios
• Walnuts
• Pecans
• Smaller export categories such as macadamia nuts and other specialty tree nuts

Almonds are the largest export category by volume. In the 2024/25 marketing year, the U.S. exported 2.01 billion pounds of almonds on a shelled basis, the second-highest export volume on record.

Pistachios are also heavily export-oriented. USDA reported U.S. pistachio exports of 487 million pounds on a shelled basis in 2023/24, up 49% from the previous year. Exports represented 57% of total U.S. pistachio supply that season.

Also read: Top Tree Nut Producing States in the USA

Main U.S. tree nut products

U.S. exports are not limited to raw nuts. Buyers can source products in several forms depending on their food application.

Almonds have a particularly broad processing range. Processing can include blanching, slicing, slivering, dicing, grinding, roasting, sorting and screening.

Pistachio kernels are also sold as halves, pieces, meal, flour, paste, butter and oil. These forms allow processors to use the same crop across products ranging from bakery items to frozen desserts and confectionery.

How are U.S. tree nuts processed for export?

Processing usually starts after harvest with cleaning, sorting, sizing and removal of foreign material or defective nuts. The exact process depends on the crop and the final product.

For almonds, processors may shell the nuts and then produce whole kernels, sliced or slivered almonds, diced products, roasted almonds, meal, flour, butter and other forms.

Pistachios can be marketed in-shell or processed into kernels. Kernel sizes and forms are selected according to the buyer’s application. Smaller pieces can be used in doughs, ice cream, frozen desserts and confectionery, while pistachio meal can be used in bakery products or as a base for paste and fillings.

For commercial buyers, processing level matters because it affects handling, storage, specifications, pricing and the type of manufacturing equipment required at the destination.

Where do U.S. tree nuts go?

U.S. tree nuts are sold across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, North America and other regions.

India is an important market for U.S. almonds. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service reported that the United States supplied about 140,171 metric tons of India’s almond imports in MY 2024/25, accounting for 86% of total imports.

Pistachio trade is spread across several major markets. USDA identified China, the European Union, Turkey and India among the leading destinations for U.S. in-shell pistachios during the first five months of MY 2024/25. China accounted for 35% of export volume during that period.

California walnuts also depend heavily on international demand. The California Walnut Commission says over two-thirds of California walnuts are exported, making overseas sales an important part of the industry.

American pecans have established markets in Europe and North America, while industry export programs are also focusing on opportunities in Asia, including India and China.

Also read: Latest Tree Nuts Industry Markets News, Insights, and Updates

What is changing in U.S. tree nut exports?

Several trends are shaping the U.S. tree nut export business.

1. Export demand remains central to the industry

Tree nuts have become an important part of U.S. high-value agricultural exports. USDA ERS notes that the share of U.S. agricultural exports represented by high-value raw products has expanded since 1990, largely due to tree nuts, especially almonds and pistachios.

2. Crop cycles can change export availability

Tree nut production does not move in a straight line every year. Pistachios, for example, follow an alternate-bearing cycle. USDA reported that the 2024 California pistachio crop was expected to be 26% below the 2023 record, but still the third-largest crop on record at that time.

Walnuts faced a different supply situation. USDA reported that U.S. walnut production fell to 603,000 tons in 2024/25, down 27% from the previous year’s record. U.S. walnut export unit values subsequently increased by more than 50% from September 2024 through July 2025.

3. Processed formats create additional demand

Exporters are increasingly dealing with buyers that need specific forms rather than basic in-shell products. Sliced almonds, diced nuts, pistachio pieces, flour, meal, paste and butter can serve food manufacturers with different formulation needs.

4. Trade policy can affect market access

Tariffs remain an issue for some U.S. tree nut exporters. USDA ERS reported that Turkey increased its most-favored-nation duty on almonds and walnuts in 2023, adding to the tariff burden on U.S. exports.

China is another important example. USDA’s 2025 China report noted that tariffs had reduced the U.S. share of China’s pecan imports, while South Africa and Mexico gained ground.

5. Market diversification remains important

Recent industry programs show continued investment in export development. In 2026, the American Pecan Council received $1.2 million through the USDA America First Trade Promotion Program to support international market development. California Walnuts also received $3.66 million through the 2026 Market Access Program, alongside existing Regional Agriculture Promotion Program funding.

U.S. tree nut export data at a glance

Sources: USDA ERS and USDA FAS.

What should U.S. tree nut buyers and exporters watch?

The main factors are crop forecasts, export volumes, inventory levels, overseas demand, tariffs, freight costs, food regulations and the shift toward processed nut ingredients.

For buyers, product specifications and processing form should be defined before sourcing. For exporters, relying on a single overseas market can increase exposure to tariff or demand changes.

The U.S. tree nut export business is therefore shaped by both the size of the crop and what happens after harvest. Processing capacity, product formats, international market access and changing buyer requirements will continue to influence where U.S. tree nuts are sold and how they are valued.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Image credit: Nut Insights
Sources:

• Fruit and Tree Nuts Data – Trade and Prices by Category and Commodity / USDA Economic Research Service USDA ERS trade and prices data
• Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2025 / USDA Economic Research Service USDA ERS September 2025 Outlook
• Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2025 / USDA Economic Research Service USDA ERS March 2025 Outlook
• Pistachios crack walnuts’ long-standing spot in California’s tree nut acreage ranking / USDA Economic Research Service USDA ERS California tree nut acreage report
• Tree Nuts Annual / USDA Foreign Agricultural Service USDA FAS Tree Nuts Annual
• Tree Nuts Annual, India / USDA Foreign Agricultural Service USDA FAS India Tree Nuts Annual
• Tree Nuts Annual, China / USDA Foreign Agricultural Service USDA FAS China Tree Nuts Annual
• Almond Forms / Almond Board of California Almond Board of California almond forms
• Forms of Pistachios / American Pistachio Growers American Pistachio Growers product forms
• Targeting Export Markets to Drive Success / California Walnuts California Walnuts export markets
• Exports and international markets / American Pecan Council American Pecan export markets

California is by far the largest tree nut producing state in the United States, with major production of almonds, pistachios and walnuts. Other important states include Oregon for hazelnuts and Georgia, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas for pecans.

For a 2026 view, the latest complete USDA state production data available is for 2025. USDA’s June 2026 Crop Production report had not yet started estimating several 2026 nut crops, so 2025 production is the most useful verified basis for comparing states.

For buyers, processors, traders, exporters and other nut-industry businesses, knowing where each major U.S. tree nut is produced helps identify important supply regions and industry clusters.

Which states produce the most tree nuts in the USA?

There is no single USDA ranking that combines every tree nut into one production number because almonds, hazelnuts, pecans, pistachios and walnuts are reported in different units. A practical comparison is to look at the major tree nuts produced by each state and the reported value of utilized production.

*California’s figure is the sum of the USDA-reported 2025 values for almonds, pistachios and walnuts. It is a calculated comparison, not a USDA-published combined state ranking.

Also read: U.S. Tree Nut Exports: Products, Markets and Trends

1. California

California is the center of the U.S. tree nut industry. USDA data shows why. In 2025, the state produced 2.715 billion lb of shelled almonds, 1.58 billion lb of pistachios in shell and 809,000 tons of English walnuts.

The combined reported value of these three crops was about $12.10 billion. Almonds accounted for $6.87 billion, pistachios for $3.92 billion and walnuts for $1.30 billion.

California’s position is also supported by its large tree nut acreage. USDA’s Economic Research Service reported that almonds, pistachios and walnuts made up the state’s major tree nut acreage in 2024, with pistachio acreage having surpassed walnut acreage in recent years.

For companies sourcing multiple nut types, California is the most important U.S. production region to understand.

2. Oregon

Oregon is the leading U.S. state for hazelnuts. USDA reported 121,500 tons of utilized in-shell hazelnut production in 2025, valued at $340.2 million. The state had 92,000 harvested acres of hazelnuts.

Oregon’s tree nut industry is much more specialized than California’s. Hazelnuts are the state’s main commercial tree nut crop, making Oregon particularly important for processors, ingredient buyers, confectionery companies and other businesses that use hazelnuts.

3. Georgia

Georgia is one of the major pecan-producing states in the U.S. USDA reported 111.5 million lb of utilized pecans in 2025, with a production value of $209.62 million. The state had 145,000 harvested pecan acres.

Georgia’s position is important because pecan production is concentrated in the southern United States, unlike almonds, pistachios and walnuts, which are heavily concentrated in California.

4. New Mexico

New Mexico ranked among the leading pecan-producing states in 2025. USDA reported 76 million lb of utilized pecans, valued at $187.72 million. Pecan acreage was reported at 50,000 harvested acres.

The state’s high pecan yield also stands out. USDA reported 1,520 lb per acre in 2025. For businesses involved in pecan sourcing, New Mexico is therefore an important production region to monitor.

5. Arizona

Arizona produced 40.8 million lb of utilized pecans in 2025, with a reported value of $92.62 million. USDA reported 26,000 harvested pecan acres and a yield of 1,570 lb per acre.

Arizona’s pecan production is smaller than Georgia’s and New Mexico’s in total volume, but its reported yield was higher than both states in 2025. That makes the state relevant for commercial pecan supply and production analysis.

Also read: Latest Tree Nuts Industry Markets News, Insights, and Updates

6. Texas

Texas is another established pecan-producing state. USDA reported 41.6 million lb of utilized pecans in 2025, valued at $85.26 million. The state had 121,000 harvested pecan acres, but its reported yield was only 344 lb per acre.

The difference between Texas and states such as New Mexico and Arizona shows why acreage alone does not tell the full story of tree nut production. Weather, orchard conditions, water availability, tree age and annual crop conditions can all affect yields.

7. Hawaii

Hawaii has a smaller tree nut industry but holds a distinct position because of macadamia nuts. USDA reported 30.6 million lb of utilized in-shell macadamias in 2025, valued at $31.82 million. The state reported 16,300 harvested macadamia acres.

Hawaii is therefore the key U.S. production state for macadamias, while California dominates several of the largest U.S. tree nut crops.

Major U.S. tree nuts and their leading states

The U.S. tree nut industry is highly concentrated by crop.

• Almonds: California
• Pistachios: California
• Walnuts: California
• Hazelnuts: Oregon
• Pecans: Georgia, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas
• Macadamias: Hawaii

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service specifically tracks almonds, hazelnuts, macadamias, pecans, pistachios and walnuts as major tree nut crops.

This crop-by-crop structure matters for B2B companies. A buyer looking for almonds or pistachios will generally focus on California, while a hazelnut buyer will look toward Oregon and a pecan buyer will need to consider several Southern and Southwestern states.

What does 2026 mean for U.S. tree nut production?

The 2026 production picture is not yet complete. USDA’s June 2026 The crop production report stated that current-year estimates cover the full 2026 crop year, but blank cells mean the estimation period had not yet begun. The national table therefore did not yet provide 2026 production figures for almonds, hazelnuts, macadamias, pecans, pistachios or walnuts.

There is already some 2026 acreage information. For example, USDA’s 2026 California State Agriculture Overview reports 1.39 million harvested almond acres, compared with 1.40 million acres reported for 2025.

For industry planning, 2025 production should therefore be treated as the latest completed benchmark, while 2026 acreage and later USDA crop estimates can provide a clearer picture as the season progresses.

Key data for the U.S. tree nut industry

These are USDA 2025 production figures and are reported in the original units used by USDA.

Why these states matter to the U.S. nut industry

The U.S. tree nut supply chain is concentrated in a relatively small number of states. California is the largest production hub across several major crops, while Oregon, Georgia, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas and Hawaii have strong positions in specific nut categories.

For processors, ingredient buyers, traders, exporters, equipment suppliers and other B2B companies, this concentration makes state-level production data useful for supplier research, sourcing decisions, market analysis and regional business development.

Conclusion

California remains the clear center of U.S. tree nut production in 2026, supported by its large almond, pistachio and walnut industries. Oregon leads in hazelnuts, while Georgia, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas are important pecan-producing states and Hawaii remains the main U.S. macadamia-producing state.

Because final 2026 nut production data is not yet available, the 2025 USDA figures provide the strongest completed benchmark for understanding the U.S. production map. Businesses tracking the nut industry should watch upcoming USDA estimates as the 2026 harvest data becomes available.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Image credit: Nut Insights
Sources:

• 2025 State Agriculture Overview for California — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• 2025 State Agriculture Overview for Oregon — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• 2025 State Agriculture Overview for Georgia — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• 2025 State Agriculture Overview for New Mexico — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• 2025 State Agriculture Overview for Arizona — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• 2025 State Agriculture Overview for Texas — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• 2025 State Agriculture Overview for Hawaii — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• Crop Production, June 2026 — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
• Pistachios crack walnuts’ long-standing spot in California’s tree nut acreage ranking — USDA Economic Research Service